Algerian Radio
Experts from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) have warned of the repercussions of the military escalation in the Gulf on the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market, forecasting a price surge to unprecedented levels.
In a report published this Wednesday by OAPEC, prepared by its experts and titled: “Disruptions of LNG Shipments via the Strait of Hormuz,” it is indicated that the intensification of military operations in the Gulf since last Saturday, and the resulting restrictions on LNG carrier traffic, will have repercussions across the entire energy market, spanning all sources, including natural gas.
OAPEC experts estimate that, despite Iran's 'limited' influence on the global gas trade in terms of exports, the country holds strategic importance due to the Strait of Hormuz. More than 19% of global LNG supplies transit through this strait, primarily originating from the State of Qatar, the world's second-largest producer and exporter, with an estimated 81.3 million tons in 2025, according to the organization's data.
Consequently, any disruption of LNG carrier traffic through the Strait of Hormuz “would affect the stability of the entire global market,” the report adds, specifying that 83% of the exports transiting through this passage are destined for Asia, while Europe absorbs 11%, and the Gulf countries themselves account for 6%.
In this context, OAPEC highlights the direct repercussions on the markets, noting that this situation will lead to a surge in spot prices in Asia, which will, in turn, ripple through to the European market.
“With European storage levels having fallen to critical thresholds (below 30%) at the end of February, the situation foreshadows a price surge,” according to the report. It specifies that importing markets will be forced to bear higher costs, not because of the “value of the gas” itself, but due to the “cost of access” to this resource.
