Algerian Radio
The El Nino climate phenomenon has strengthened over the past month and is highly likely to rank "among the most significant" ever recorded during its expected peak between October and December, US forecasters announced on Thursday.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now estimates an 81% chance that this El Nino episode will be "very strong," which would make it one of the most intense recorded since measurements began in 1950.
El Nino is a natural climate variation that warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
While every El Nino is unique, the phenomenon has historically caused or intensified droughts in parts of the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia, and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India, and triggered torrential rains in East Africa.
According to US meteorologists, surface temperatures are already 1.2°C above average in a defined portion of the equatorial Pacific.
Combined with warming waters beneath the surface and changes in wind and pressure patterns, "the ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Nino phenomenon," they explained.
Coupled with human-induced climate change, the last El Nino helped make 2023 the second warmest year on record and 2024 the warmest.
The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to twelve months. Once it passes, ocean heat dissipates slowly and can continue to push global temperatures upward the following year, leading many climatologists to fear that 2027 could break the record for the hottest year ever recorded.
