Algerian Radio
A report released on Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office predicts that average global temperatures will reach near-record levels over the next five years. The report suggests that temperatures in the Arctic will rise at a much faster rate than in other regions.
According to the annual report, which provides predictions for temperature and rainfall across various regions, the average annual global near-surface temperature is expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (the 1850-1900 average).
Melissa Seabrook, a researcher at the UK Met Office, stated: "There is very clear evidence that the climate is getting warmer and that average temperatures across the world are rising."
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations pledged to try to prevent the global average temperature from exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as climate phenomena have been observed to increase in intensity beyond this threshold.
The report indicates that it is highly likely that the global near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. It also predicts that at least one year in this period will surpass the record high set in 2024, when temperatures first exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.
Melissa Seabrook noted that a temporary breach of the 1.5°C limit does not mean the Paris Agreement has failed, as the treaty refers to a long-term average over 20 years rather than a single year. However, she warned that as the world inches closer to that threshold, the likelihood of frequent breaches increases.
"Scientific studies clearly indicate that the window of opportunity to maintain the global average temperature at 1.5°C is rapidly closing," she added.
The report further projects that winter temperatures in the Arctic over the next five years will rise by more than 3.5 times the global average, reaching approximately 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Consequently, sea ice is expected to melt during March in the first half of the next decade in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas.
Melissa Seabrook concluded that the warming in the Arctic could disrupt global weather systems, leading to more extreme weather events, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere.
